Whither Saab?

For anyone unfamiliar with this word and it's use in this context, it comes from an olde English phrase “Whither Thou Goest?” The slightly rhetorical query loosely translated means “How goes it?” In Saab's case, badly!

In the context of this post, maybe the heading should read “Saab Withers – (and dies)” Because we seem to be just waiting for the death notice in the morning newspaper.

Okay, so this week it took an order from China for just over 500 cars! Wow! The company says that will keep it going for at least another week or so! Yikes!

General Motors did not 'sell' Saab to Spyker Cars, it 'jettisoned' the tiny Swedish car company (with the emphasis on the first three letters, j-e-t), in its efforts to improve its own chances of self-preservation.

However, and here's the rub. Despite its piddlingly small output Saab is not only a small company, but also a 'global' company. It suffers because it has no economies of scale, there's a huge drain on its resources just to maintain its position in the number of markets where it sells cars.

Victor Mueller, who runs Spyker, is an entrepreneur and a dreamer, but I believe he is full of good intent, and what he needs to locate, and mine, is a bottomless pit of money right now. However, I think I'm right in assuming that Saab's new Chinese partner, Pang Da, is NOT the bottomless pit of unrestrained cash Saab is desperate to find.

Last week's news that Saab continued to suspend production, because it can't pay its suppliers, or its workers, follows a decision by the Swedish Government to release some emergency funds, and its Chinese saviour Pang Da agreeing to step up with some progress payments. But, despite the cash injection, it still wasn't enough and it looks like Saab may not last the year out, let alone the decade.

Seeing Hawtai as a saviour for Saab was misplaced confidence. Let's face it, Hawtai is a provincial Chinese vehicle maker, with no international experience, and probably very few street smarts for a volatile, global industry.

I suspect there's little sophistication in its executive, resource and fund management processes, and it is not up to the task of leading Saab back from the brink. Saab's new deal with Pang Da may work out, but this company too is a regional operation, which is essentially distribution. Not sure it has the street smarts to 'manage' a car maker. Mueller's ideal scenario might be "Just send money."

One very telling moment for me was when the respected auto executive Adrian Hallmark came and went in three months. He was barely settled in his chair at Trollhatten when he was head-hunted to help Jaguar. The speed with which he departed Sweden for Gaydon, England, was noticeable.

I've known Hallmark for more than 12 years, and he knows his stuff. He's highly-experienced and highly-regarded, and has run Sales & Marketing successfully for Bentley Motors globally, and Volkswagen in America and China. His integrity and his respect for protocol would never see him admit it, but I reckon he got in the door at Saab and saw what a bunfight lay ahead. Never one to shirk a difficult challenge, Hallmark was nonetheless very quick to leave for more manageable hurdles at Jaguar. That says lots to me about Saab's potential.

So the survival of Saab remains a dream in the misty eyes of Saab enthusiasts and the current management. Mind you, Saab is run by a very good team, and is a very innovative group, but it just needs a guaranteed supply of funds. General Motors sold it for a song, and left it with a couple of new cars in the pipeline – but it needs lots more than that to succeed, and survive.

There's another, more philosophical issue. Saab's current lineup, and its immediate future models are all conventional vehicles powered by internal combustion engines. Despite a flaky concept car, there is no plan, or money to diverge into electric cars, hybrids or fuel cells – so how is Saab going to face the future? Its engineers are certainly clever enough to conjure solutions to that question, but it hasn't the resources to realise it.

A Futile Force

It was almost an unbelievable scenario, but when Leyland Australia was in its death throes as a vehicle manufacturer, thanks largely to the failure of the P76 to generate sufficient return on investment, the Product Team continued to work on what can only be called, a folly - the Force 7 coupe.

New to the editorial team at MODERN MOTOR magazine it was my job to dig up some news on the car, and report on the latest testing. The Leyland Australia engineers were a pretty canny bunch when it came to hiding their work from prying eyes, but at MODERN MOTOR we were also a pretty crack team at infiltrating security, and snapping sneaky photos.

The editor at the time, Rob Luck, had a very switched-on network of informers, and amateur scoop photographers, and he himself had been known at times to find himself ‘inside the fence’.

However, as is often the case, a big Force 7 scoop story fell in our laps. One evening I was addressing a car club, and over a cup of coffee one of the members casually said to me: “If you want to snap Leyland’s new car, I can tell you when and where to be.”

Turns out he was a part time Ranger at the Royal National Park, south of Sydney. For the past few weeks he had been on duty collecting entry fees at the main gate, and religiously every morning at 7am, an orange Force 7 coupe entered the park, with a Marina chase car right behind it.



Scooped!



It was pretty easy to hide off the road, near the entry gate, and snap a few photos with a long lens over a period of three days. Then we would drive south on the Princes Highway, and enter the Park from its southern gate, and set up on some twisty bits where the cars would have to slow down, and that gave us some driving shots as it exited the Park.

Sadly, while the scoop was newsworthy and well documented the end was fast approaching. In 1974 Chairman David Abell announced manufacturing had ceased, and the company would revert to the status of an importer. The Force 7 was stillborn, and several in-process cars were crushed, leaving just 10 finished cars to represent the futile efforts of the Product Team.

I’m indebted to my friend John Shingleton for this hastily-snapped photo of six of the last coupes, parked out front of the Leyland Australia head office, just before they were auctioned. John had been asked to meet with management to set up parts supply from the UK for the Triumph Dolomites which were soon to be imported, and as he arrived for his meeting he managed to snap off this one photo on a half-frame camera he always carried with him.

Now, there are plenty of photos available of some of the last cars, which ended up in the hands of enthusiasts, or more precisely, ‘Force 7 Tragics’. It was the biggest hatchback most of us had ever seen, and whilst it wasn’t exactly beautiful its lines were easier on the eye than the P76 sedan.



Three of the last 10 cars



Like the sedan, it was initially designed by Giovanni Michelotti, however more of the original Italian Force 7 sketch survived into production than did the sedan.

There’s a great story that when Michelotti saw what the Australian design team had done to his original drawings to produce the final production P76, he packed up the quarter scale P76 model, and all the drawings and sent them to Australia saying he did not want his name associated with this ‘abomination’.



One huge hatchback



The P76/Force 7 was a brave, foolhardy, move by a tiny company, with a tiny budget and not a great grip on reality. It truly was a folly, but parts of it were brilliant. I drove a Force 7 for half a day, before the auction – and the team had done a good job of refining it.

The aluminium V8 engine in particular was world class, the ride and handling were impressive and the styling (whilst controversial) was completely different to the American offerings from Holden and Ford.

Would the Force 7 have been popular if it had survived? Given the mediocre response to the P76 sedan, I’m not sure either would have survived for long, but I think the Force 7 would have attracted a lot of interest. It was new, different, edgy and appealing - but would that have been enough?

(Photos from John Shingleton and P76 Owners Club)

LONDON TO SYDNEY - IN A MINI-MOKE! A GREAT ADVENTURE

I stepped off a Singapore Airlines 707 in Copenhagen at 7:40am on July 29, 1977 after flying from Sydney, with refuelling stops in Singapore, Athens and Amsterdam, to be met by my friend and co-pilot Hans Tholstrup. He dropped me off at the BP building, and said: “The Moke’s in the basement car park, I’ll see you at my Uncle’s place. Here’s the address.”

Never mind I had just flown non-stop for 28 hours, I guess he figured if I couldn’t find his uncle’s chateau just outside the city, then I would be pretty hopeless navigating from London to Sydney!



Tholstrup family chateau, outside Copenhagen



The first photo in this gallery confirms I was able to follow his directions, in the environs of a city I had never been to before. The rest is history. We were the seventh car away from London’s Covent Garden, and we were classified the 35^th finisher at the Sydney Opera House, and, coming home second in class we won AUD$250! That’s right, $250!

Looking back, I think I would gladly have paid that, and more, for the experience of driving 30,000km through 30 countries in 30 days. The 1977 Singapore Airlines London to Sydney Car Rally was, and remains, the most adventurous thing I’ve ever done, and I thank my wife of 50 years for releasing me from family responsibilities to drive halfway across the world with one of the most amazing people it has been my pleasure to know.




JC and Moke at Big Ben

 

Hans Tholstrup’s adventures are well known, as are his achievements. However, I am privy to his skills, talents, intuition and tenacity. In addition I have witnessed his resourcefulness, intelligence, canny understanding of human nature, and quite frankly, his bravery and chutzpah. I thank my lucky stars I met him, competed with him and remain his friend – he is a living legend!

The colour slides I still have are the best living testament of the adventure, but they can never record the emotions, the tension, the fear and wonder of facing the unknown, and the sheer relief of arriving at the Sydney Opera House.

Terrier in Paris

Many people have said to me that we must have been crazy to compete in a Mini Moke. Of course it was unusual, but Hans’ preparations were so thorough I never doubted for a minute we would make it. And, along the way I photographed some great memories which will live with me forever.



Driving from Turkey into Iran



There was considerable comfort that our support vehicle, the 5 tonne Terrier truck was also entered as a competitor. The truck carried our luggage, tools, spare parts, supplies and copious quantities of our staple diet – cellophane bags of toasted muesli flakes and Coca Cola!

As Hans had warned us all about eating food prepared out of our sight, and drinking dodgy water, we supplemented the muesli and Coke with naturally-packaged foods like bananas, hard boiled eggs, chocolate bars and Lebanese bread.

I lost a lot of weight, but survived the diet, albeit with an addiction to Coca Cola which took me six months to shake! 



One of the greatest elements of the whole adventure was the fabulous, and different personalities we met along the way. Hans and I were already good friends with the Rally promoter, Wylton Dickson and his cohorts Ken Tubman and Jim Gavin, but in every country we met amazing people, and struck up terrific friendships with officials and fellow competitors. The camaraderie which existed among the competitors was warm, helpful, co-operative and generous. Despite the intense competition at the head of the field, every one of the teams was willing to help another.

 

Once the Rally left Athens, everything changed. We drove north east out of Ankara to a remote part of Turkey where the locals stood, gobsmacked, by the side of the road as the modern rally cars flew past. Quite a contrast to mud huts and donkey-drawn carts.

We stopped in the village of Tatvan to repair a bracket on our radiator, and needed welding equipment. No problem. We were led to the local service station, café, hairdresser and public toilet (a hole in open ground at the back of the main building), where the owner provided modern welding gear, and we were on our way after thick Turkish coffee, cakes and a lot of back-slapping.

Wylton Dickson seeing us off in Mumbai

All through Iran, our car was shadowed by a team of SAVAK agents from the Shah’s secret police force. In Afghanistan in 1977 the overland highway from Herat to Kandahar, Kabul and the Khyber Pass, was the country’s only continuously-paved road. The Afghan government was so concerned the rally field would be attacked by tribal bandits it had stationed a policeman or an army soldier every kilometre along the way, for 2000 kilometres! And swept the field with helicopters.






Hans buying spring water from Hindu holy man




In India we stopped to refill our water bottles, and were led to a spring where the local Hindu holy man sold us natural spring water for 20c a bottle. We refilled six bottles, and the profit endowed him with considerable riches!



Also in India, between Pune (Poonah) and Bangalore we stopped to make repairs and within minutes were surrounded by 27 ‘helpers’ who all insisted they do the work. Hans stood on the side of the Moke and shouted at them to step back, threatening to fire shots in the air! We didn’t have a gun, but that moved everyone back at least 18 inches from the car!



'Helpers'near Bangalore







In Chennai (Madras) we relaxed at the Connemara Hotel while the rally cars were shipped to Penang. On the last day room service stopped as the Indians came to grips with the death of Elvis Presley. Also on that day I succumbed to a hamburger by the pool, and caught an attack of the runs.

Loading the Coke Moke in Chennai



Aboard the Singapore Airlines flight from Chennai to Penang I shared the First Class toilet with my friend, and the eventual winner of the Rally, Andrew Cowan. As one would finish in the toilet, the other would take over. We solved our problem in Penang by following advice from Australian rally legend, Doug Stewart, who said when he got the ‘runs’ he took five anti-diarrhoea pills first up, then followed that four hours later with another five! I don’t think either Andrew or I used our bowels for a week after that treatment. It was very effective!

In the desert west of Giles Weather Station



Roadside repairs, just west of Kata Tjuta

The Australian leg of the event was very tough. We had difficulty keeping up, because shipping delays meant the time to get from Perth to Sydney had to be truncated, and we were pretty much flat out every day just to stay in sight of the leaders. Our service crew had to drive west from our planned meeting point at Uluru to find us in the desert near The Olgas to repair a broken engine mount, but apart from that the Moke was trouble-free all the way to Sydney.

Filling up at Uluru





Getting directions



Passing Prive's burning Range Rover

















Greeted by Australian racer Colin Bond at the Sydney Opera House










In the final run from Queensland to the Rothbury Estate in the Hunter Valley (which was the official finish of the event) we endured wrong directions issued by the organisers, missed Controls which had been established on the wrong road, and as we motored slowly past Jacky Prive’s burning Range Rover, it reminded us how much we’d endured, and how lucky we were to have our road book stamped and signed at the final Control.

The Singapore Airlines London-to-Sydney Rally remains the world’s longest rally to this day, and of course could never be run over the same roads, given the turmoil in parts of the Middle East and Asia, but I'm glad I was in it.

Tired, dusty, but happy

Funny, I never did see any part of the $250 prize money. I think Hans must have shouted himself dinner and wine with one of his many girlfriends.

But what a blast!

Gazing Into Ford's Crystal Ball

As I peer into the crystal ball it appears that there’s a possibility Ford Australia may be able to throw a lifeline to the parent company in Dearborn, Michigan. It’s a prospect that could more than make up for the death of indigenous manufacturing at Broadmeadows.

Crown Victoria Cab

First, however we have to take a trip to the USA. Any regular visitors to America will be aware of the huge business Ford Motor Company enjoyed with its sales of Ford Crown Victorias to taxi fleets and police departments, and also the great sales generated by the ubiquitous Lincoln Town Car as ‘livery’ cars (aka Limos).

Lincoln Town Car

All that business dried up overnight when Ford decided it would no longer make the clunky old Crown Victoria/Town Car, because the design was dated (body on frame) and needed too much investment to reinvent.

Lincoln MkT 'limo'

Also, Ford was confident it could convince the markets that it could effectively replace these cars with a reworked Lincoln MkT SUV. Trouble is the buyers didn’t want to know. The taxi/police/livery markets simply said: “No way.”

Taurus Police Interceptor

The Taurus-based FWD Police Patrol Vehicle (PPV) received a similarly lukewarm reception.

Let’s now hop on a jet to Europe, where Ford has never had a ‘big’ car in its lineup since the death of the unloved Scorpio. There are quite a few opportunities for ‘big’ cars in Europe, and the UK, but they are so limited that Ford of Europe could never justify the investment.

Now, back to Australia, and we arrive to find that Ford Australia’s designers and engineers have done an outstanding job designing and engineering the Figo small car, the Ranger ute and the Territory SUV. That’s not to forget the exceptional job it did on the current Falcon, operating on the tiniest of budgets. Make no mistake, in engineering terms these products are world class. And, all done by the talented team Down Under.

Okay, you couldn’t really sell Falcon in global markets, because despite the fact it looks and drives so well, it really is clunky by contemporary global standards, and should have been wholly replaced years ago. However, a new Rear Wheel Drive platform designed and engineered by the same people who brought you Figo, Ranger, Territory and Falcon could just be the product Ford needs in a number of markets.

2012 Taurus - what next year's Falcon could look like

As one of my wise friends points out, the current Taurus can’t be sold as a Falcon right now, because there’s no RHD version.

But, what if the current car could be eventually replaced by a new platform engineered for RHD, LHD, FWD, RWD, AWD, SWB and LWB and developed by the Ford Australia engineers.

Like the Ranger, it could be all done in Australia, and made and sold in a number of global markets. It could even be sold in Australia as a Falcon, except local manufacturing may be a past glory by that time.

I'm certain Ford Motor Company does not want to jettison the big investment it has in Australia, not only in design and engineering skills, but also manufacturing experience - but it could bring Ford Australia into line with Alan Mulally’s ‘One Ford’ policy, by harnessing those skills and experience across a single platform development.

This concept may just be my own personal dream, but I would be thrilled if it came to pass. It could make up for management missteps of the past, in one decisive stroke.

Just imagine, Ford Australia could provide a replacement for Crown Victoria taxi and police cars, Town Car limos, Scorpio, Falcon and whatever else a RWD platform could become - and you know it would be a globally-competitive product if it was done in Australia. I hope so!

Holden's Hot Wheels

You don’t have to be an auto industry insider to wonder at, and question, the chasm in distance and difference between business and product decisions made by GM Holden, and its ‘competitor’ Ford Australia.

Whilst Ford Australia faces the potential ignominy of losing its manufacturer status Down Under, GM Holden is going from strength to strength. It’s decision to introduce the Cruze sedan is paying off; Commodore is still Australia’s preferred ‘big’ car, it’s profitable and Holden has new models headed here which will entrench the company as the leading manufacturer.

In New York last week GM continued to show its confidence in the Holden operation, and journalists attending the New York Auto Show came away with some tantalising teasers about future developments.

Chevy/Holden Malibu

First will be the local assembly of Cruze sedan and hatch, followed by the Malibu as the replacement for Epica, and also the prospect of a Malibu wagon based on the Opel Insignia wagon.

Then, waiting in the wings is the Chevy Volt, which undoubtedly will wear Holden badges before long.

Chevy/Holden Volt

Bob Lutz told me many years ago that Holden was a true jewel in GM’s crown and needed to be nurtured, protected and encouraged as a centre of engineering excellence. He has long been a supporter and cheer leader for the Australian division, and that confidence will be endorsed as the new product plan rolls out in Australia, and the Australian engineering and development work becomes a reality in future global GM products.

The Holden-designed Cruze hatchback was shown in Geneva in March and a detailed look at the design, fit and finish, margins and overall quality reveals that this is a well-engineered car. In Australia Cruze sales started slowly, but have been building steadily, and the diesel model is also growing in popularity.

Chevy/Holden Cruze Hatchback

When the Malibu arrives here to replace the unloved Epica, I believe it will strengthen Holden’s market position significantly. It’s a good-looking car built on the global Epsilon platform which means that build quality will be easier to achieve and maintain. GM invested heavily in the development of the Epsilon platform, and it is key to the success of a number of models including Buick Regal and Opel Insignia.

The Ford Australia team must be looking enviously at Holden’s model spread, market potential and probable success from this explosion of new product.

Automotive News writer Rick Kranz is promoting the idea that GM could create a wagon version of Malibu very quickly, by adapting the Opel Insignia design cues. He’s not wrong.

Opel/Chevy/Holden Insignia/Malibu wagon

A compact wagon, the size of a Mazda 626 wagon would be a great addition to the GM lineup. In New York last week GM’s Mark Reuss didn’t deny that rumour/possibility.

The only downside for Holden right now is the strength of the Australian dollar against the greenback, which must be badly affecting export pricing for the Police Patrol Vehicle (PPV), that’s based on the LWB Holden Caprice. The currency situation must also be causing GM to rethink plans to export consumer versions of the Holden Caprice to the USA, as a Chevrolet.

Holden has endured almost as many ‘when-the-music-stops’ changes in CEOs as Ford Australia has in the past few years, but there still seems to be much more uniformity and cohesion in GM Holden’s decision-making than Ford Australia, despite a succession of CEOs. Also, Holden appears to ‘have a seat at the table’ in Detroit - something which Ford Australia has never really enjoyed in Dearborn.

Personal Mobility - What's Coming?

There’s a paradigm shift in personal mobility coming at us at warp speed. Now that the oil price regularly sits above $100 a barrel we need to get serious about the future beyond engines powered solely by gasoline and diesel.

The fuel(s) of the future, their availability and use will dictate what we drive, how we drive and when we drive. In fact as this is being written we are beginning to see a significant loss of the freedom and independence which personal mobility provides now.

Whichever route is chosen we have to have not only widespread availability of fuel, but also the infrastructure to deliver it to our vehicles. Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) recharged solely from the power grid are not a practical option in countries like Australia, the USA and Canada, where single journeys can average around 30km.



Renault Zoe



In fact BEVs could be a good solution for crowded environments like Europe, Japan, China and India – but only if the recharging infrastructure is built. But, really it’s just a City Car concept at best, like Renault’s Zoe BEV.

The term ‘Range Anxiety’ is now a part of the lexicon, and the limited distances over which BEVs can be used without a long and unproductive recharge cycle really rules them out as personal mobility devices, the way we currently see our cars.

This leaves us with two options at the moment – first, Hybrids (like the Lexus CT200H) or Extended Range Vehicles (like the Chevy Volt). These are the only formats which provide a decent distance, and allow freedom to move about that we now enjoy.



Lexus CT200H



Beyond that, electric cars are a solution, but only if they’re powered by Hydrogen, or even Natural Gas.

The choices made by the car manufacturers over the next ten years are critical to their survival, because if they choose the wrong format, they lose in the marketplace, simple as that.

In France, Peugeot is developing a Hybrid 3008, using a diesel engine rather than a petrol version, and it already enjoys good relationships with a number of manufacturers and could share its hybrid-diesel technology.



Peugeot 3008 diesel-hybrid



Mercedes-Benz is moving towards Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles (FCEVs), as is Honda, Hyundai and Toyota. The recent F-Cell World Tour using three B Series FCEVs was a good indicator of how advanced Mercedes-Benz technology is.



Mercedes-Benz B Series F-Cell



General Motors is currently selling the Chevy Volt, an Extended Range Vehicle (ERV).

Ford is hedging its bets. Firstly, it is a joint-venture partner with Mercedes-Benz in developing fuel cell technology, and as well it has a range of Plug-In BEVs on its drawing board.

In Australia however, the clear differences in choices between the two leading makers (GM & Ford) once again show that Holden will likely emerge a winner, and Ford Australia will (again) get left behind. Both companies have an entrant in the Green Car segment, and GM is on a winner, and Ford is on a loser.



Chevy Volt



Holden will launch the Volt ERV, and Ford will likely try to compete with the Focus Plug-In BEV. Holden’s Volt will go around 400km, the Focus will travel roughly 100km before it needs an 8 hour recharge.



Focus BEV



The reason Ford Australia will be forced down this path is because Ford of Europe isn’t working on ERVs, because its European drivers travel shorter average distances, so it thinks BEVs will suffice.

The Australian market is too small and insignificant to create a special car for this country, so Ford Australia will simply have to take what’s available.

Affordable Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles are at least ten years away, plus there is the question of a Hydrogen gas refuelling infrastructure. However, Mercedes-Benz is very well advanced with its FCEV technology and could have affordable technology in less than 10 years. It’s at that point Ford could have a winner.

As far as infrastructure for hydrogen refuelling is concerned, this is a very easy series of decisions. If enough car manufacturers choose the FCEV format, then the investment, building and maintenance of a refuelling infrastructure is practical, affordable, sensible and profitable – it just needs some enlightened venture capitalists to get in first and begin the project to build such stations on a global basis.

So where does this leave our Personal Mobility Paradigm? Enjoy how you drive today, because 20 years from now it will be a distant memory.