Tuesday, September 5, 2017

PEUGEOT-CITROEN? PROBLEMS-PRET-A-PORTER

I’m warning you up front that if it’s cars you’re interested in, then this is an industry story, it’s serious, so you might want to move along. It’s also a parochially Australian yarn.

In 1953 a chemist from Maitland, NSW, who was a car nut, and a bloody good driver, called Ken Tubman, entered a bog-standard Peugeot 203 in the very first ‘Redex Round Australia’ trial.


Outside the capital cities and their burbs, in the 1950s, most roads in Australia were gravel roads, with very little ‘shaping’ – they just followed the landscape. So, this event was really tough on cars and teams. Ken Tubman also carried the ‘perseverance gene’ and with his dogged determination, and a ‘never give up’ spirit he triumphed over some of the fastest cars then available.

The secret, as well as his determination, was the Peugeot 203. It was light, strong, well-built, tough and incredibly reliable. The total service costs for the entire Rally was a fan belt (25c), and a Radiator Hose ($1). Actually, they had those spares on-board, so the service down time was just as long as it took to change them.

This began an era of an image that French cars were tough and reliable, with all the qualities of strength and durability needed to be successful on the rugged African continent.

After this we had cars from Renault and Simca, and they all shared these qualities, and they all enjoyed sales success – to a degree.

One thing you must not forget is that they were ‘French’ – which is shorthand among people who knew nothing about cars, that they were different, likely to be weak, and not very powerful. 

So, in Australia, despite their incredible qualities, there was a limited market for ‘French cars’.

Simca came and went in one of the many turbulent developments for the Chrysler company; but Renault and Peugeot stuck it out in Australia and they were successful – to a degree. Remember, they were ‘French’.

There was always residual affection for the Peugeot marque, as we found out in 1985 when I was PR Director for Jaguar Rover Australia, and we began assembling the Peugeot 505 at our assembly plant in the Sydney suburb of Enfield.

The car was very successful, especially the ‘premium’ STi version, and we achieved the modest numbers we had promised Peugeot we would sell, and there was ongoing sales growth with both the 505STi sedan and the 505 wagon.

When the assembly contract ended, because of a new Australian federal government policy which mitigated against CKD assembly, we moved into a new era of our relationship with Automobiles Peugeot (as it was then known).

We became an ‘importer’ and as such we had to line up with every other country in the world, large and small, which imported cars fully built-up from France. Our previous good relationship, as an ‘assembler’ appeared to count for nothing, because our direct report was no longer a department concerned with ‘production’ – it was the overseas marketing department.

I spent a lot of time, both in meetings at my own company discussing the future for Peugeot, and also accompanying senior executives to Paris to present annual sales and marketing plans. It was as if the ‘old JRA’, the ‘assembler’ and the ‘new JRA’, the ‘importer’ came from different galaxies.

We were treated entirely differently. The suits in Paris were mostly dealing with third world countries, or those territories which had been part of the once-mighty French colonial empire. They seemed to forget we were intelligent, well-educated, erudite and switched-on car people. A team which had achieved much more for Peugeot than any previous Australian importer.

Frustration doesn’t begin to describe the issues we faced. The pricing discussions were ridiculous. They said we were buying a ‘premium French car’ and it would be priced accordingly.

The volume discussions similarly awkward. Also, the subject of margins was a minefield. As a CKD assembler we enjoyed a healthy margin, because the manufacturing team understood the issues involved in ‘assembling’ and selling the cars.

The international marketing team, not so much. We were one of dozens of ‘customers’ and we would take, and accept, the dictates from Paris.

The cars were great. The Peugeot 405, the 405 Mi16, and the pocket rocket, the incredible Peugeot 205GTi. However, selling them in any decent volume at the ex-factory prices we were given was pretty near impossible.

As an ‘assembler’ we were treated as part of the family; as an ‘importer’ we were one of those nasty ‘customers’ who were always bleating about increasing our margins, demanding more marketing support and failing to deliver the expected volumes.

So, fast forward to 2017. The British automotive retail giant Inchcape plc has just assumed responsibility for importing and distributing Peugeots and Citroens to Australia. I wish them luck.

Inchcape in Australia is run by a very successful ‘car guy’, Nick Senior, who is almost solely responsible for driving Subaru’s success in Australia to the great heights it has achieved. He is a smart cookie.

Nick is pragmatic, experienced and an innovative thinker. But, how the hell he’s going to improve PSA’s sales situation in Australia I have to wonder.

The most recent product launch is the Peugeot 3008 SUV. Good car, well-specced, overpriced.

Nick Senior has appointed an experienced operator as MD, and they have chosen the initial product lineup sensibly, but there’s still that ‘colonial attitude’ in Paris about far-flung customers.

The PR releases from Inchcape say that the company will 'do whatever it takes'; that it will 'invest in the brands'.

That's code, which means Inchcape will invest 'its own money' in trying to market and sell PSA products. Once Inchcape has slogged away, with no real change, that investment idea will get old quickly.

Don't expect financial handouts from Paris. As far Paris is concerned this is only a problem on the other side of the world. I see nothing in this latest appointment which tells me things will be any different.

So far I have only focused on Peugeot, but Citroen has an even bigger problem in Australia.

Anyone with any historical knowledge of the brand’s glory days Down Under is probably pushing up daisies, but here is another triumphal French marque which has fallen unceremoniously to the bottom of the pile in Australia.

The marketing guys in Paris in their Yves St. Laurent suits, Chanel after-shave and Gucci shoes couldn’t give a toss about the problems the antipodean importer is facing, trying to grow sales, and more importantly market share.

Traditionally what happens in Australia, is that there is a modest market for French cars, so growth in sales and market share comes from the French companies stealing sales from each other, and back again, as the products change – not the market at large.

A bigger problem for PSA to try and comprehend, is that as good as its products are, they are overpriced – and out there in customer land, the punters look at a PSA car, and the pricetag, and then go and buy a Kia or a Hyundai.

These days the Korean cars are more than a match for their French counterparts - they’re cheaper, high quality and come standard with long warranties. Which gives the customers a warm and fuzzy feeling about long-term ownership.

Sure. If you’re bit off-beat and you like to be different, buy a Peugeot-Citroen. First you’ll pay through the nose for the privilege; then you’ll pay through the nose for parts and service.

See, deep down, and back in Paris, I think the French companies believe they only sell their cars to French people, in France, who ‘understand’ la difference, and will pay a premium for driving les voiture Francais.


In Australia, if the deal doesn’t add up – we buy Korean. No risks there.

Friday, September 1, 2017

CADILLAC'S WINNING STREAK - AND IT'S NOT IN THE USA

If you have been reading my highly self-indulgent Blog for some time, you will know how much I admire the history, heritage and integrity of the Cadillac brand. From its beginning in 1902, Cadillac came to represent engineering integrity almost the equal of the revered British marque, Rolls-Royce.

However, not long after General Motors acquired Cadillac in 1909 things began to plateau for the famous brand – which represented all the good things about the American image of successful entrepreneurs buying themselves a quality car as a reward for their achievements.

Although Cadillac continued to innovate and announce trend-setting features, powertrains and driving pleasure, as GM’s ownership entered the 70s, a big downhill slide began, and then it accelerated.

I bemoaned this trend in a series of Posts on Driving and Life (back in June 2016), and welcomed the fact that GM had at last appointed a tough new CEO who was the most likely guy in decades, who could pull Cadillac out of its death spiral.

The 57 year-old South African, Johan de Nysschen, had successfully guided Audi of America back to success; and was working on a similar strategy for Infiniti, when he was tapped by GM.

I worked alongside de Nysschen when I was PR Director for Bentley Motors North America, in the Volkswagen of America HQ in Auburn Hills, Michigan.

We didn’t meet very often, but I can tell you he’s tough, focused, talented, and takes no prisoners. He’s exactly what Cadillac needed, but more accurately, he’s exactly what GM needed.

GM’s top floor in the Renaissance Centre, Detroit, is populated with a lot more very ordinary executives, than stars. Thankfully, GM’s Chair and CEO, Mary Barra, had the good sense to hire Johann de Nysschen. He immediately made everyone, GM execs, Cadillac staff, dealers and customers, very sad by telling them the truth: “Things would get worse before they got better.”

Well, the light at the end of the tunnel is breaking through the darkness. Cadillac is doing well, but not at home. It’s newfound growth and successful acceptance is happening in China, where wealthy Chinese, who aspire to the American dream, are celebrating success by buying a Cadillac. And not a Cadillac SUV, but Cadillac cars.

For years Cadillac had lost its way. It’s old ‘land yacht’ floating palaces, bought by wealthy, old age Americans, had stopped selling, because the owners were dying off.

GM refused to properly invest in the marque, and a succession of Cadillac CEOs were forced, by market and dealer pressure, to resort to building the biggest, most intimidating SUVs on the market. And still, Cadillac could not recover its lost image, nor make money.

A lot of the problem was internal. GM never, never recognized that it should treat Cadillac, like, say Rolls-Royce – with respect, commitment and resources.

Johan de Nysschen appears to have been able to sustain his stubborn commitment to his plans, strategy and tactics. And, things are looking up.

Cadillac’s average US transaction price has risen impressively to around USD$54,000; and he has cut back on sales incentives. Also, de Nysschen has cut back on supply to dealers, which although that means Cadillac is sacrificing market share, the dealers finally have a situation where the cars are taking on a new image.

Cadillac CT 6

However, Cadillac’s success in China will have an even more important knock-on effect. GM appears to be willing to devote more resource to Cadillac’s design teams, to usher in a new range of Cadillac cars.

Its most recent concept car, the Cadillac Escala is a truly beautiful design, oozing style, class and sophistication.

I think all the Cadillac designers were waiting for was some encouragement to bring their innovative flair forward, so that GM management could be convinced.

Cadillac's chief designer, Australian Andrew Smith (top), leads a team of really talented exterior stylists; but also Cadillac is pioneering a range of stylish new interior designs, utilising new materials and subtle color palettes.

The design team have also produced their share of dream cars - like the 2002 mid-engined Cadillac Cien.

Cadillac's design fortunes will undoutbedly be strengthened by the appointment of Australian Mike Simcoe as GM’s Head of Design.


Simcoe (left) has style, class and sophistication as his calling card, and with his support I know Cadillac will be able to produce high quality cars again, that look the business.

I couldn’t be happier. Cadillac has a lot to be proud of.

Even if today’s millionaires (Chinese or American) don’t have any wealthy old relatives, who once owned a Caddy, I think the marque may finally have its day in the sun.

ZB HOLDEN COMMODORE - GOOD ENOUGH?

If what I’m hearing from the consumer drive days, and my close friends in the Australian automotive media is any guide, the emphatic answer is – YES!

Disregard all the emotional hand-wringing and wailing over the end of the rear-wheel-drive Australian-built Commodore – it’s consigned to history.

The ZB Commodore is in fact, just what the doctor ordered, to address some very important real-world challenges. What a pity it could disappear within one life cycle.

First, the GM-Holden engineers have been embedded in the Opel planning group since Day One, so they have managed to achieve all their objectives for a car which will wear the Holden badge.

The ZB is lighter, stronger, more fuel-efficient and powerful – and very much in tune with the demands of today’s drivers.


The Aussie engineering team has spent many thousands of kilometres racing and bumping around the giant Lang Lang Proving Ground, ensuring that the ZB will cope with our unique road conditions, and also fine-tuning the turbocharged four cylinder engine to produce an ideal combination of power and economy.


There’s nothing better than a ground-up, clean-sheet-of-paper car, developed from scratch and meeting all the current and proposed legislative and consumer needs.

I suspect that when potential buyers drive the ZB Commodore for the first time, they will get a very big, and pleasant surprise.


If Ford Australia hadn’t decided to kill the Australian-built Falcon, then the ZB Commodore would have done the job – by highlighting how relevant the Holden car is, and how last-decade the Falcon was.

Although I must say the final Falcon is an outstanding car.


GM-Holden plans a three-model tier structure (base, mid, high) and I’m told the base model looks like it. 

Acres of grey cloth, lots of hard plastic, no internal chrome trim or embellishments and one powertrain spec. Nobody is going to buy it in that form, but GM-Holden will be chasing massive fleet and rental business with this model. Take it from me, the fleet pricing will be very aggressive.

The mid tier model will have enough to keep the punters happy, with standard spec including lots of drivers’ aids; entertainment interface; powertrain choices and trim levels.

I suspect the high line model will carry enough of a price premium to earn the company more than a sliver of profit. The V6 AWD models especially will probably carry a hefty premium.


GM-Holden's current Chairman/CEO, Mark Bernhard, is a very senior, and experienced GM executive who knows how to manage the money, and I think the Australian-born boss and his team will have a canny plan to make ZB succeed on paper and in the showrooms.

It’s my confident opinion that the ZB Commodore will succeed straight out of the blocks. I haven’t driven it, but I believe what I’m being told.

Maybe GM-Holden will get a pleasant surprise from the efforts of its advocacy program and the intrinsically-high quality of the finished product.


Out there in dealer land I think everyone will be happy.

One drive should do it!

THE COMPLEXITY OF COMMODORE'S FUTURE

These past few weeks GM-Holden hosted small groups of consumers, current and past Holden customers, media and skeptics to its high security test track east of Melbourne – the Lang Lang Proving Ground.


It’s part of a massive effort aimed at having Commodore enthusiasts ‘accept’ (in fact the world at large) that in lieu of a sporty, rorty, rear wheel drive V6 sedan, the new version will:

   1. Be built in Germany at the Opel facility in Russelsheim
   2. Is based on the Opel Insignia hatchback
   3. Is now a turbocharged, four cylinder, front drive sedan    
   4. The V6 AWD models will be priced to earn a profit

At Lang Lang, the assembled groups drove the new Commodore, talked with engineers and designers, and hopefully at the end of the exercise, came away as advocates for the changes in the design/engineering/positioning strategy, and carry the word out to the broader community.

Dark clouds of forboding hang over Commodore, and, Holden's future

This is a really important phase of the introduction and launch of the new ZB Commodore, simply because the new model represents a sea change in everything that the current Commodore stands for.

GM-Holden says it will continue in the Supercars race series, with a V6 AWD version specially homologated for the series, so Holden can continue to be a presence in motor sport – just like the good old days.


So the pieces are being moved around the chess board to give Holden the best possible chance of emerging from the death throes of the Australian-built Commodore, and embracing a new future.

So far so good. It’s a big challenge in public perceptions of the new Commodore, and the Holden suits are giving it all they’ve got.

However – and there’s always a ‘but’ – GM’s disposal of its European operations to PSA of France has thrown a spanner in the works.

GM-Holden had just digested the changes brought on by the end of local manufacture, and replacing the beloved Aussie Commodore with a FWD 4cyl. sedan from Europe; when it gets thrown another curve ball.

When I first wrote about these changes I prognosticated that there would be a huge conflict once PSA took over GM’s European operations. PSA inherits a number of legacy platforms (small, medium and large Opels/Vauxhalls) using GM-sourced components and powertrains, and PSA is committed to continuing with the cars spun off those platforms – at least for a while.

I forecast that PSA would do this only until it hatched a plan to replace all the GM legacy platforms with PSA platforms. Then of course that would raise a question about Holden’s 2018 ZB Commodore, and its future.

I learned, from an impeccable source (who was present on the day when GM’s Mary Barra did the deal with PSA’s Carlos Tavares), that Ms. Barra also offered PSA the opportunity for it to take over the Holden division (lock, stock and barrel) as well as the European operations.

PSA declined to take on dealing with the massive challenge of integrating a whole antipodean subsidiary corporation into its global activities; so it was finally agreed PSA would just supply Holden with the German-built Insignia.

But for how long? That’s the obvious question. 
Commonsense, and 40 years experience in the car business tells me it won’t last long.

However, now I am hearing that PSA has made clear to Holden that there will only be (and even that’s a maybe), one refresh of this new Commodore. Model life cycles are usually eight years, so that means we will probably have the ZB Commodore for 3-4 years; then a refresh, but no deep changes (like powertrains, suspension, etc.). In other words, just a re-skin.

That’s that!

So where does this leave GM-Holden, and the millions it is spending now to turn the tide of public opinion in favour of its ‘new Commodore’?

Well, it suggests that by 2025 there will be another change of DNA and genetics in the Holden bloodline. The next Commodore would be built off a PSA platform, with different engines/transmission/suspension – the whole enchilada.

However – and there’s always a ‘but’ – recent rumblings from Detroit HQ give a lot of weight to actions by Mary Barra to shrink GM’s overseas operations and retreat back to the bastion of its United States fortress.

And that would leave Holden out in the cold, with no friends, and no support.

You don't think that could happen? Hey, this is business. GM is essentially planning around operations in the USA and China - that's it.

Lang Lang history - 1948-2016
Hence, the reason Mary Barra was so keen to offer Holden to PSA.

Now that plan has fallen through, what could happen to Holden? What about Holden’s huge Australian Design Centre, and engineering operations, plus the proving ground at Lang Lang?

Remember since breaking the news about shutting down Australian manufacturing, GM has talked up the quality, integrity and ingenuity that springs from its Australian design and engineering division.
Holden Design - jewel in the crown?














But, in the final analysis, that could be just talk . If GM does retreat, it will simply close its expensive-to-maintain technical operations, and leave a shell company, acting as a small import operation.


Maybe then PSA could be convinced to take it over. The scale of the ashes that remain after the fire sale may be easier for a European-centric company to absorb and manage.

All of this pre-supposes that PSA is able to competently digest its German acquisition and integrate it with its French operations, and somehow make profits from the massive over-capacity arising from the output of both the French and German factories.

Keep in mind the German union IG Metall is a very aggressive and outspoken player in Germany’s industrial and political affairs, and no doubt, along with German leader Angela Merkel, has negotiated (or dictated) that it would approve PSA’s takeover, providing no German jobs were lost.

So, PSA’s issues about what happens to Holden, and successive Commodores, is just chicken feed compared to the bigger problems it faces in Europe.

The Opel factory in Russelsheim, just outside Frankfurt, is huge and together with GM's other eight European factories has massive production capacity - around 1.2 million vehicles a year.

GM Europe already has problems with excess capacity.

This will force some sort of resolution, but it will have to be achieved with a serious level of compromise if IG Metall is to be satisfied.

How can you close plants and lose people without a German industrial revolution?

PSA has five plants in France and two in Spain, plus assembly operations in China and India. Its French plants alone have a production capacity in excess of 3 million vehicles a year.

If PSA was to sell EVERY vehicle it made that could turn PSA into the biggest carmaker in the world, and that just ain’t going to happen. Life in the car business doesn’t work that way.

So PSA’s challenges in managing capacity, preserving employment AND selling cars, will ultimately affect Holden’s future, and guess what? There’s precious little Holden can do to influence the outcomes. Especially if it has been jettisoned by GM.

Holden will just become a nervous passenger on the PSA express.


Remember, you read it here first.