Readers of this Blog know I am a diehard enthusiast for cars, and the personal enjoyment of driving. Many times I have moaned about a move to autonomous cars, and lack of personal mobility options in the future.
However, I am enough of a realist to know that the end of the car as an independent and personalized mode of transport does have a use-by end date.
To inform this view, according to GoAuto News Premium, the American think-tank, ReThinkX, says that the industry will be in its death throes by 2024. The ReThinkX crystal ball-gazers say that the end of the car will follow the same disruptive processes as film cameras and CDs. It says this development is inevitable, and I agree with them.
ReThinkX says the 10 years beyond 2024 will shatter the car industry by deconstructing the car dealership model, eradicating the used car business, shrinking the number of private cars on the road, slashing oil consumption, insurance revenues and also killing the car servicing/repair industry.
In Vancouver, and many cities around the world, we have seen the rapid growth of car-sharing services, which make a lot of sense. It's hard to find parking for your personal car in constricted cities, so paying for the use of a car only when you need it make perfect sense to me.
Yes, autonomous cars will/may come along to further disrupt things, but I do foresee major disruptions ahead outlined by ReThinkX which will decimate the car industry as we know it today.
If your life, income or potential fortune relies on the success of the car industry as we know it, then make sure you have reset your financial horizons consistent with this doomsday vision, because I believe ReThinkX are on the right road to predicting the end of the personal car.